Haitong Securities the central bank to restart the 14 day repurchase repurchase delay is not equal t-www.277.cc

Haitong Securities: the central bank to restart the 14 day repurchase repurchase delay is not equal to tighten not to fear, loose delay is not equal to tighten! Interpretation — on the central bank to restart the 14 day reverse repurchase (Jiang Chao, Zhou Xia, Haitong bond – Gu Xiao Xiao) in August 24th, the central bank after half a year to restart the 14 day reverse repurchase bid rate of 2.4%, unchanged from the previous period. This also confirms the August 23rd rumors that the central bank will restart the 14 day repurchase. And this news in 23 caused a great disturbance in the bond market, the 10 year bond futures contract fell 0.5%, the 10 year bond interest rates sharply upward 4bp, also hit the biggest decline since April. For a time, the stock and bond markets have become a badly frightened person, is not the wolf? Monetary policy turned? Financial leverage to start? In the end how to look at the central bank 14 days reverse repurchase restart it? We believe that loose monetary policy will be delayed, but will not tighten. We know that the central bank’s monetary policy tools are divided into two categories: one is the number of control tools, such as the deposit reserve rate, SLO, MLF, reverse repo, central bank bills, the other one is the price regulation tools, such as interest rate, exchange rate etc.. But in the central bank’s monetary policy tightening history, usually has a very clear signal that reflects a rise in interest rates, or the return of funds, such as the reserve rate increases, or issuing central bank bills, repurchase and return the money. If the central bank raised the deposit interest rate or reserve ratio, then the signal will tighten monetary tightening, such as in 2007 and the first half of 08, as well as 2010, 11 and 12 years. But in 2013 the money shortage, the central bank did not increase or increase, but the currency rate R007 soared to more than 10%, resulting in the bond market of Shanghai stock index also fell Starving people fill the land., to below 2000. In this case, the use of monetary instruments for the central bank to observe the details is very important. When the central bank in July and in August, respectively, to restart the 7 day and reverse repurchase of the past 14 days, but then the reverse repo rate for the 7 day from the beginning of the year, a substantial increase of 3.35% to the 4.4%, the reverse repo rate of 14 days from a substantial increase of up to 4.5%. At the same time, the central bank in July 13 to restart the 3 one-year central bank bills issued, similar to the return of funds and locked for 3 years, so the year for this behavior also has a name called "lock long put short, although the central bank through reverse repurchase on short-term liquidity, but through the central lock long-term liquidity. The whole is still tightening policy combination. So in 2013 there is a shortage of money behind the central bank’s monetary policy to restart the 3 clear, through one-year central bank bills and increase the reverse repo rate clearly conveys the tightening signal. Look at this time, the last two days of the repo rate compared to the previous week has obvious upward, but the 7 day repo rate is from 2.47% last week rose to about 2.7%, 10% and 13 years can not be mentioned in the same breath with. And from the Central Bank of the number or price signal, the theory of相关的主题文章: